The Propane Database and Forecasting Model (PDFM) was developed by ICF International for the Propane Education & Research Council (PERC) as part of the Market Metrics Initiative. PDFM Version 7.2 includes data updates on weather, GDP, national housing stock, and propane prices, as well as a new weather Base Case, which now uses average 1991-2020 propane-adjusted heating degree days.
The PDFM includes historical, estimated, and forecast propane consumption and housing for the years 1998-2020. A number of end-use sectors are analyzed: residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial, portable cylinder, and internal combustion engine. In addition, the residential and commercial-demand results are broken down into monthly units.
The PDFM provides the basis on which the propane industry can make strategic business decisions. It will help identify propane marketing opportunities as well as evaluate the potential impact of propane usage trends and marketing programs on propane demand.
The model explicitly estimates the impact of factors that drive propane consumption. These include weather and fuel price, which are expected to have significant short-term impacts on demand. Other factors included in the model, such as economic activity, population and demographics, competition with alternative fuel sources, and the influence of general efficiency trends, have longer-term impacts.
An important element of the PDFM is the Residential Housing Stock Module. The seamless integration of the Residential Housing Stock Module into the PDFM results in accurate and detailed housing and propane demand forecasts. This module provides estimations on the total size of the U.S. housing market, propane competitive market share , and the propane share of the housing market. Driving this module are trends in housing construction, market share of the propane competitive market, natural gas market penetration, and market share loss due to the wood market.
Product Code: 4665
(File size: 33.3MB)
previous titles: Propane Demand Forecast Model; Propane Demand and Forecasting Model